Examining the expansion of Spartina alterniflora in coastal wetlands using an MCE-CA-Markov model

The spread of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) has put biodiversity and ecosystem function at risk since it was introduced to China just a few decades ago. A better understanding how the range S. will expand in future help manage invasion this species coastal wetlands. However, is difficult model extent saltmarshes China. To address issue, we combined multi criteria evaluation with traditional CA Markov provide robust forecasting spatial expansion for next ten years, Dafeng Milu National Nature Reserve, Jiangsu, Our results showed that, compared interpretation high-resolution remote sensing images 2020, kappa coefficient verification accuracy 82.63%, indicating that MCE-CA-Markov good prediction results. Therefore, can forecast process over years. predicts area continued decrease from 910.25 ha 2020 881.21 2030. distribution been decreasing on landward side while expanding towards sea seaward side. This study provides some suggestions effective management control invasive species, which could be important wetland conservation resource management.